After seeing military vehicles with “battle emblems” painted on them, there are rising concerns that Belarus may soon be compelled to join the conflict in Ukraine.
Armoured vehicles participating in quick “combat preparedness” training close to Ukraine’s borders were seen on state TV with red squares painted on them to help drivers identify one another in actual fighting.
Just before he issued an order for a full-scale invasion in February, Vladimir Putin also ordered military training close to Ukraine’s borders during which Russian tanks began to display the letter “Z” marks.
Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has so far refrained from sending his army into the Ukraine conflict, but he has let attacks to take place on Belarusian soil.
Early in the conflict, Russian troops sent to seize Kyiv marched on the city from Belarus, and missiles fired from that location decimated the capital.
Since Russia started stationing more of its own troops on Lukashenko’s territory in September, pressure has reportedly been mounting on him to send his army into battle.
But he hesitates, probably out of concern that his army, a mere shadow of that of Russia, will be decimated in the battle.
That might lead to a significant threat to Lukashenko’s rule, coming just two years after he narrowly survived the last popular revolt. Control of the military is essential to keeping control of the country.
Western intelligence continues to assess that a Belarusian attack is highly improbable and that Russia is stationing soldiers there as a diversionary measure to prevent Ukraine from moving the troops responsible for defending Kiev to the frontlines in the south and east.
This week, Oleksiy Arestovych, a former military intelligence officer who is now a presidential adviser for Ukraine, agreed with that assessment.
In a weekly podcast, he claimed, “Belarus is now a diversion for us.”
There is a “active propaganda operation” and “little troop movement” close to Ukraine’s northern borders.
Ukraine has been left in the dark about Minsk’s intentions due to a rush of military activity by Belarus, including a counterterrorism exercise last week.
Officially a “union state,” Russia and Belarus have strong economic and military ties.
Alexander Volfovich, state secretary of the Security Council, stated in a video statement released by the Belarus Defence Ministry earlier this week that the checks would essentially cover all of Belarus’ operational commands.
He stated that one military unit had been assigned the task of securing “a target on the southern border” as part of this.
According to him, the assignments will be based on an examination of what Russia refers to as its “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Although Belarus’s little army, according to western military observers, has the power and combat prowess to make a significant impact, the possibility that it might interfere from the north causes Ukraine considerable stress as it concentrates on battling Russian forces in the south and east.
The drill, which was launched on Tuesday, required troops to relocate rapidly to “specified places” and build up bridge crossings over the Neman and Berezina rivers in western and eastern Belarus, the Belarusian Defence Ministry had earlier stated.
It stated that during this time, military troops and equipment would be moved, and some public highways and areas of the landscape would temporarily be off-limits to civilian transportation.
Separately, Andrei Lukyanovich, who had served as the air force’s deputy commander, was elevated to assume command of the air force and air defense units, according to the state news agency Belta, after his predecessor was fired due to his advanced age last month.
Additionally, Sergei Aleinik was appointed by Lukashenko to lead the foreign ministry in place of Vladimir Makei, who passed away unexpectedly at the age of 64 last month. Makei’s death’s cause has still not been released by the authorities.
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