Week 12 NFL picks against the spread for every game in 2022

The Giants have gone from first place in the NFC East to a doomsday situation in the blink of an eye as they travel to Dallas (home of the renowned Doomsday Defense of the 1970s) to face the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

It’s not just that the Giants fell to the Lions, nor the lackluster 31-18 final score. Not only did Big Blue suffer another set of injuries to Wan’Dale Robinson, Adoree’ Jackson, and Fabian Moreau, but they also sustained a slew of others. Brian Daboll and his coaching staff have led the Giants to a 7-3 record despite a minefield of injuries. Detroit is a formidable opponent that has won three consecutive games.

The issue is caused by the combination of the loss’s timing and the accumulation of damage. The Giants are going on a short week for this game, and as my colleague Paul Schwartz pointed out in Tuesday’s Post, they now have to play CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown over the next month as their calendar becomes jam-packed with division games at the worst possible moment.

The Cowboys defeated the then 8-1 Vikings in Minnesota by a score of 40-3. To stop them, the Giants will need a secondary or a receiving corps that can keep up. The Giants currently lack both. This may turn nasty.

Cowboys against Giants pick

-9 Cowboys (BetMGM)

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott; Getty Images

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Little surprise that the Bills elected to return to Snowpocalypse Buffalo between games at Ford Field rather than practice in Detroit. I doubt it will be a significant distraction or energy drain. The Giants were unable to exploit the Lions’ 32nd-ranked defense, but Buffalo’s top-ranked offense can. Detroit’s loss of CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) would be significant.

Patriots won’t duplicate the 40 points the Cowboys scored against the Vikings, but Bill Belichick’s defense may be able to restrict them to three or a low number. Both clubs’ offensive lines have suffered critical injuries. Here are two possible considerations: This is Kevin O’Connell’s first experience coaching over a short week, and Belichick makes mincemeat of first-year coaches.

Sunday

Robert Saleh’s decision to bench Zach Wilson was correct. Now, the players can devote their attention to what they need to do to create victories, rather than what Wilson does or says. Also, keep an eye on the injury report for Justin Fields. If he is forced to miss time due to his non-throwing shoulder ailment, the Jets’ defense should dominate. And if the Jets get enough healthy offensive linemen back to at least send Dan Feeney back to the bench, the running game will be revitalized and White’s task will be made easier.

Baltimore Ravens (-4) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

In Tuesday’s Post, C Jackson Cowart of Action Network noted that the Ravens are the sixth team in NFL history to have led by 10 or more points in each of their first 10 games. They have lost three of their last four games, but I like their chances to cover this small spread against the Jaguars if they acquire a double-digit lead.

A wager on the NFL?
Carolina Panthers over Denver Broncos (+2.5)

I’ll take a chance on the home underdog Panthers here. Both teams are terrible, but at least Carolina has covered in four of its previous five games, while Denver has a 3-7 record against the spread and is traveling for an early game.

Washington COMMANDERS (-4.5) are favored over the Atlanta Falcons.

This appears to be another favorable matchup for the Commanders, whose tenacious offense might break down a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in yards and 27th in points allowed. Kyle Pitts (knee) is out for the season for Atlanta.

After a good start against the Bills in Detroit, the Browns faded. DeShaun Watson will not be able to play for one more week, which provides little motivation. The Buccaneers have begun their run with two consecutive victories and are in their best health to date.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Spread is modest, however the Titans being home underdogs may be a slight insult. The NFL is running out of red ink to mark Tennessee’s injury report, but I anticipate Ja’Marr Chase’s return to revitalize Joe Burrow.

Miami Dolphins are favored by -12.5 points over the Houston Texans.

Lovie Smith lacks optimism as he considers replacing Davis Mills with Kyle Allen. Will the 1-8-1 Texans continue to fight in the eighty-degree south Florida heat if the Dolphins begin to pull away?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders defeated Russell Wilson in a mediocre game in Denver last week, but facing Geno Smith and company in the Pacific Northwest will be much more difficult. The Seahawks are healthy and returning off a bye week, whilst the Raiders are playing their fourth road game in the previous five weeks.

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS

It is too early in the week to determine whether Kyler Murray will return for Arizona. Nevertheless, the 49ers annihilated the Cardinals’ defense on Monday night, and I believe the Chargers are capable of doing many of the same things, if not in the same manner.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-14.5) are favored over the Los Angeles RAMS.

I don’t generally award the defending Super Bowl champions more than two touchdowns, but I will now. If Matthew Stafford is unable to play due to a concussion, the Rams have essentially no offensive remaining. Do you wish to wait three hours for Travis Kelce to become weary of scoring?

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5) are favored over the New Orleans Saints.

While I respect the Saints, especially at this point in the season, they are still without four defensive starters, including Marcus Davenport and Marshon Lattimore, and the 49ers’ varied attack is beginning to get momentum. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel are a nightmare with three heads.

Philadelphia is now 0-3 ATS and has failed to cover in four of its five victories this season. Dallas Goedert, Tight End, is missed. Aaron Rodgers is turning Christian Watson into a weapon, which might help the Packers improve before the end of the season.

Monday Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 2.5 points over the Indianapolis Colts.

The Steelers are now one of the league’s healthiest teams and will benefit from a second game with T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick on defense. I enjoy the idea of Mike Tomlin being the underdog in prime time versus a coach in his third season.

Best bets: Buccaneers, Ravens, Steelers.
Lock of the week: the Pirates (Locks 7-4 in 2022).
Last week: 7-6-1 overall, 2-0-1 Best Bets.